Two years of empirical development, four NBA seasons of validation, and 4,600+ tracked predictions. Here is exactly how ClutchTip works — and the data that backs it up.
Every prediction recorded before tip-off. No retroactive changes, no cherry-picking — the full record, publicly available.
FULL GAME-BY-GAME BREAKDOWN — EVERY PICK, EVERY RESULT
View Full Results →Results recorded contemporaneously across 4,600+ rows of timestamped tracking data. Every prediction tied to a specific API GameID, independently verifiable against official results.
| Tier | Games | Correct | Accuracy | Role | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PREMIUM | 356 | 340 | 95.51% | Core product — highest conviction | |
| STRONG | 148 | 119 | 80.41% | Secondary picks | |
| EDGE | 95 | 66 | 69.47% | Lower conviction — marginal | |
| HIGH VARIANCE | 188 | — | Flagged | Model flags elevated uncertainty | |
| Overall | 787 | 652 | 82.85% | All tiers combined |
ClutchTip has been in continuous development since March 2024. The following milestones are documented by contemporaneous tracking spreadsheets with 4,600+ timestamped rows.
Manual prediction tracking begins. Side-by-side comparison of CBS Sports, custom models, and other approaches against actual results. Daily accuracy ranging 50–87% depending on method.
First XGBoost model deployed for the 2024–25 NBA season. RMSE 2.56 on player points. 61.5% raw accuracy across 478 tracked predictions — with no confidence filtering.
Successful multi-leg parlay at combined odds of approximately 3,700:1. Every leg selected by model output, verified against contemporaneous tracking data. All games on record.
100 consecutive correct game-winner predictions logged in the tracker during the 2024–25 season. Timestamped and verifiable against official NBA results by GameID.
PREMIUM/STRONG/EDGE/AVOID confidence tier system introduced. First live deployment with full pipeline: meta-learner stacking, Monte Carlo simulation, HOT/COLD form flags.
RotoWire injury filtering integration. Multi-season backtest across 4,497 games and four NBA seasons confirms the model generalises across eras. Season record: 138–68 (67.0%).
Published accuracy figures from competitor platforms are marketing claims. ClutchTip's figures are verified, tracked predictions with GameID references. These are not the same thing.
| Approach | NBA Accuracy | Monthly Price | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casual Punter | ~48–52% | — | Gut feel / media tips |
| AI Platforms (ATSWins, BetIdeas) | ~55–65% | $5–$30 | Marketing claims, not tracked |
| Premium AI (ZCode, SportsModelAnalytics) | ~60–70% | $30–$100 | Claims not independently verified |
| Quant / Syndicate | ~65–75% | $200–$440+ | Institutional, not public-facing |
| ClutchTip (All Tiers) | 69.0% live | $1.99/day · $9.99/wk · $29.99/mo | Timestamped tracker · 2 full seasons |
| ClutchTip Premium | 81% live · 95.5% BT | $29.99 | 356-game backtest · GameID verifiable |
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