FIFA World Cup 2026:
the complete prediction record.
All 90 fixtures the engine called, published before kick-off and graded against the final score. Nothing has been added, removed or revised after the fact. This is the full record, including the fixtures we got wrong and the period before the engine could call a draw at all.
The 18 June conversion
The record divides cleanly at one date, and the reason is mechanical rather than narrative. Before 18 June 2026 the engine had no draw capability — it could only select a team to win. A fixture that finished level was therefore not a call it got wrong; it was a call it was structurally incapable of making. Seven of the first fifteen fixtures finished level.
Why this is checkable rather than asserted. The claim does not rest on us saying we improved. It rests on three things visible in the data below:
- No prediction before 18 June selects a draw. Six do afterwards.
- Seven fixtures in the pre-18-June window finished level and were unwinnable by construction: Canada v Bosnia — CAN 1–1 BIH; Brazil v Morocco — BRA 1–1 MAR; Qatar v Switzerland — SUI 1–1 QAT; Netherlands v Japan — NED 2–2 JPN; Belgium v Egypt — BEL 1–1 EGY; Saudi Arabia v Uruguay — KSA 1–1 URU; Spain v Cape Verde — ESP 0–0 CPV.
- Every fixture in both periods is listed. The weaker period is not omitted, and removing it is not necessary to make the later figure stand.
Tier performance
Each prediction carries a pre-match conviction tier assigned before kick-off. If the tiers are meaningful, accuracy should fall monotonically from PREMIUM to EDGE. It does, with no crossover.
| Tier | N | Won | Lost | Drawn | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PREMIUM | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 87.5% |
| STRONG | 28 | 20 | 6 | 2 | 75.0% |
| EDGE | 27 | 16 | 7 | 4 | 66.7% |
| UNTIERED | 27 | 15 | 11 | 1 | 57.4% |
UNTIERED rows are the earliest fixtures, published before the tier system was applied. They are included so the record stays complete.
Calibration
A stated confidence figure is only useful if it corresponds to reality. Grouping every prediction by its stated confidence and comparing to what actually happened: the engine outperforms its own stated probability in every band. The bias is conservative — it under-promises at every level, most heavily at the top.
| Stated confidence | N | Mean stated | Realised | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80–92% | 5 | 84.0% | 100.0% | +16.0 pt |
| 70–79% | 9 | 73.1% | 88.9% | +15.8 pt |
| 60–69% | 26 | 64.8% | 73.1% | +8.3 pt |
| 52–59% | 23 | 56.4% | 60.9% | +4.4 pt |
Every prediction
Before 18 June — no draw capability
| Date | Fixture | Engine pick | Tier | Confidence | Final score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada v Bosnia | Canada | — | CAN 1–1 BIH | LOSS not selectable | ||
| USA v Paraguay | USA | — | USA 4–1 PAR | WIN | ||
| Australia v Türkiye | Australia | — | AUS 2–0 TUR | WIN | ||
| Brazil v Morocco | Brazil | — | BRA 1–1 MAR | LOSS not selectable | ||
| Haiti v Scotland | Scotland | — | SCO 1–0 HAI | WIN | ||
| Qatar v Switzerland | Switzerland | — | SUI 1–1 QAT | LOSS not selectable | ||
| Ivory Coast v Ecuador | Ecuador | — | CIV 1–0 ECU | LOSS | ||
| Netherlands v Japan | Japan | — | NED 2–2 JPN | LOSS not selectable | ||
| Sweden v Tunisia | Sweden | — | SWE 5–1 TUN | WIN | ||
| Belgium v Egypt | Belgium | — | BEL 1–1 EGY | LOSS not selectable | ||
| Saudi Arabia v Uruguay | Uruguay | — | KSA 1–1 URU | LOSS not selectable | ||
| Spain v Cape Verde | Cape Verde | — | ESP 0–0 CPV | LOSS not selectable | ||
| Argentina v Algeria | Argentina | — | ARG 3–0 ALG | WIN | ||
| Austria v Jordan | Austria | — | AUT 3–1 JOR | WIN | ||
| France v Senegal | France | — | FRA 3–1 SEN | WIN |
18 June onward — draw engine live
| Date | Fixture | Engine pick | Tier | Confidence | Final score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| England v Croatia | Draw | — | ENG 4–2 CRO | LOSS | ||
| Uzbekistan v Colombia | Colombia | — | UZB 1–3 COL | WIN | ||
| Czechia v South Africa | Czechia | — | CZE 1–1 RSA | DRAW | ||
| Mexico v South Korea | Mexico | — | MEX 1–0 KOR | WIN | ||
| Switzerland v Bosnia | Switzerland | — | SUI 4–1 BIH | WIN | ||
| Netherlands v Sweden | Draw | — | NED 5–1 SWE | LOSS | ||
| Scotland v Morocco | Morocco | — | SCO 0–1 MAR | WIN | ||
| Türkiye v Paraguay | Türkiye | — | TUR 0–1 PAR | LOSS | ||
| USA v Australia | USA | — | USA 2–0 AUS | WIN | ||
| Belgium v Iran | Belgium | STRONG | 66% | BEL 0–0 IRN | DRAW | |
| Germany v Ivory Coast | Germany | — | GER 2–1 CIV | WIN | ||
| Spain v Saudi Arabia | Spain | STRONG | 72% | ESP 4–0 KSA | WIN | |
| Uruguay v Cabo Verde | Uruguay | STRONG | 68% | URU 2–2 CPV | DRAW | |
| Jordan v Algeria | Algeria | STRONG | 67% | JOR 1–2 ALG | WIN | |
| New Zealand v Egypt | Egypt | — | NZL 1–3 EGY | WIN | ||
| Norway v Senegal | Norway | STRONG | 62% | NOR 3–2 SEN | WIN | |
| Argentina v Austria | Argentina | — | ARG 1–0 AUT | WIN | ||
| Brazil v Scotland | Brazil | PREMIUM | 76% | SCO 0–3 BRA | WIN | |
| Canada v Switzerland | Draw | STRONG | 63% | SUI 2–1 CAN | LOSS | |
| Croatia v Panama | Croatia | STRONG | 66% | CRO 1–0 PAN | WIN | |
| DR Congo v Colombia | Colombia | EDGE | 60% | COL 1–0 COD | WIN | |
| Ghana v England | England | EDGE | 57% | ENG 0–0 GHA | DRAW | |
| Mexico v Czechia | Mexico | PREMIUM | 78% | CZE 0–3 MEX | WIN | |
| Morocco v Haiti | Morocco | PREMIUM | 85% | MAR 4–2 HAI | WIN | |
| Qatar v Bosnia & Herzegovina | Bosnia & Herzegovina | STRONG | 64% | BIH 3–1 QAT | WIN | |
| South Korea v South Africa | South Korea | STRONG | 68% | RSA 1–0 KOR | LOSS | |
| Uzbekistan v Portugal | Portugal | STRONG | 70% | POR 5–0 UZB | WIN | |
| Australia v Paraguay | Draw | EDGE | 55% | PAR 0–0 AUS | WIN | |
| Côte d'Ivoire v Curaçao | Côte d'Ivoire | STRONG | 70% | CUR 0–2 CIV | WIN | |
| Germany v Ecuador | Germany | STRONG | 69% | ECU 2–1 GER | LOSS | |
| Netherlands v Tunisia | Netherlands | EDGE | 58% | TUN 1–3 NED | WIN | |
| Sweden v Japan | Japan | EDGE | 60% | JPN 1–1 SWE | DRAW | |
| USA v Türkiye | USA | EDGE | 55% | TUR 3–2 USA | LOSS | |
| Cabo Verde v Saudi Arabia | Saudi Arabia | EDGE | 56% | CPV 0–0 KSA | DRAW | |
| Egypt v Iran | Draw | EDGE | 55% | EGY 1–1 IRN | WIN | |
| France v Norway | France | STRONG | 65% | NOR 1–4 FRA | WIN | |
| Iraq v Senegal | Senegal | STRONG | 64% | SEN 5–0 IRQ | WIN | |
| New Zealand v Belgium | Belgium | STRONG | 72% | BEL 5–1 NZL | WIN | |
| Uruguay v Spain | Spain | EDGE | 57% | URU 0–1 ESP | WIN | |
| Algeria v Austria | Austria | EDGE | 60% | ALG 3–3 AUT | DRAW | |
| Canada v South Africa | Canada | EDGE | 52% | RSA 0–1 CAN | WIN | |
| Colombia v Portugal | Draw | EDGE | 55% | COL 0–0 POR | WIN | |
| Croatia v Ghana | Croatia | EDGE | 60% | CRO 2–1 GHA | WIN | |
| DR Congo v Uzbekistan | DR Congo | EDGE | 57% | COD 3–1 UZB | WIN | |
| Jordan v Argentina | Argentina | PREMIUM | 80% | JOR 1–3 ARG | WIN | |
| Panama v England | England | STRONG | 72% | PAN 0–2 ENG | WIN | |
| Brazil v Japan | Brazil | STRONG | 67% | BRA 2–1 JPN | WIN | |
| Germany v Paraguay | Germany | PREMIUM | 76% | GER 1–1 PAR (PAR 4–3 pens) | LOSS | |
| Netherlands v Morocco | Morocco | EDGE | 54% | NED 1–1 MAR (MAR 3–2 pens) | WIN | |
| Côte d'Ivoire v Norway | Côte d'Ivoire | EDGE | 58% | NOR 2–1 CIV | LOSS | |
| DR Congo v England | England | STRONG | 68% | ENG 2–1 COD | WIN | |
| France v Sweden | France | STRONG | 66% | FRA 3–0 SWE | WIN | |
| Mexico v Ecuador | Draw | EDGE | 58% | MEX 2–0 ECU | LOSS | |
| Senegal v Belgium | Draw | EDGE | 55% | BEL 3–2 SEN (a.e.t.) | LOSS | |
| Austria v Spain | Spain | EDGE | 57% | ESP 3–0 AUT | WIN | |
| Croatia v Portugal | Portugal | EDGE | 56% | POR 2–1 CRO | WIN | |
| Switzerland v Algeria | Switzerland | STRONG | 68% | SUI 2–0 ALG | WIN | |
| Argentina v Cape Verde | Argentina | PREMIUM | 88% | ARG 3–2 CPV (a.e.t.) | WIN | |
| Australia v Egypt | Australia | EDGE | 57% | AUS 1–1 EGY (EGY 4–2 pens) | LOSS | |
| Colombia v Ghana | Colombia | EDGE | 58% | COL 1–0 GHA | WIN | |
| Brazil v Norway | Brazil | EDGE | 58% | BRA 1–2 NOR | LOSS | |
| Canada v Morocco | Morocco | STRONG | 72% | CAN 0–3 MAR | WIN | |
| Paraguay v France | France | PREMIUM | 85% | PAR 0–1 FRA | WIN | |
| Portugal v Spain | Spain | STRONG | 68% | POR 0–1 ESP | WIN | |
| USA v Belgium | USA | STRONG | 64% | USA 1–4 BEL | LOSS | |
| Argentina v Egypt | Argentina | PREMIUM | 82% | ARG 3–2 EGY | WIN | |
| Switzerland v Colombia | Colombia | STRONG | 65% | SUI 0–0 COL (SUI 4–3 pens) | LOSS | |
| France v Morocco | France | EDGE | 57% | FRA 2–0 MAR | WIN | |
| Spain v Belgium | Spain | STRONG | 68% | ESP 2–1 BEL | WIN | |
| Argentina v Switzerland | Argentina | EDGE | 60% | ARG 3–1 SUI (a.e.t.) | WIN | |
| England v Norway | England | STRONG | 68% | NOR 1–2 ENG (a.e.t.) | WIN | |
| France v Spain | France | STRONG | 58% | FRA 0–2 ESP | LOSS | |
| England v Argentina | Argentina | EDGE | 57% | ENG 1–2 ARG | WIN | |
| France v England | France | EDGE | 58% | FRA 4–6 ENG | LOSS | |
| Spain v Argentina | Spain | STRONG | 61% | ESP 1–0 ARG (a.e.t.) | WIN |
Method
Full inclusion. Every fixture the engine called appears here. There is no selected subset, no "featured picks", and no retrospective removal of losing calls.
Locked pre-kick-off. Each prediction was published before the match began, with its tier and confidence fixed at that point. Nothing is adjusted after publication.
Draw convention. From 18 June, a drawn result on a team selection scores 0.5 — the same convention used across ClutchTip's AFL and rugby records. Before 18 June a draw was not selectable, so level results score zero and are marked in the table.
Grading source. All 90 final scores independently verified against published tournament results (FIFA, ESPN, Yahoo Sports, CBS Sports, UEFA), retrieved 23 July 2026. Where sources conflicted, FIFA and multi-source agreement were preferred. The engine ran the same reasoning framework used for every other sport on this site, with no retuning between domains.
Not betting advice. ClutchTip is a sports analytics and prediction service. It is not a wagering service, accepts no bets, and receives no commission from wagering operators.